Anil Anand
After its stupendous electoral victory in Punjab assembly elections by decimating the ruling, over a century old, Congress, the decade old Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is experiencing some kind of a double whammy in terms of its futuristic contours.
Its victory has popped up two questions: 1. Will it replace Congress as pivot of opposition unity. 2. How will its relationship with the Narendra Modi led BJP be defined in future. The questions point towards two extremities in the country’s politics and the AAP under its founder and Delhi chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal seems to have its finger in both the pies at the moment.
The second question first, and it has to be seen in the light of the AAP’s cleverly crafted friendly relations with the Narendra Modi Government if not directly with the BJP. Ever since Kejriwal became Delhi’s chief minister for the second successive term, he was seen to be more conciliatory towards Centre rather than acting as an arch political and ideological rival. To have friendly relations with the Centre for the sake of running Delhi Union Territory government is one thing, but to extend support to controversial issues, the three controversial farm Bills, is another matter.
With BJP non-existent in Punjab and nowhere in a position to defeat the Congress to move another step towards “Congress-mukt Bharat”, the AAP came as a substitute and did what the BJP would have liked it to do. No one including the AAP leadership can deny the party’s role in ensuring Congress’ defeat in Uttrakhand and Goa assembly elections as well by cutting into the latter’s vote bank. That is where the BJP-AAP arrangement comes handy for the ruling dispensation at the Centre.
The AAP’s relationship with BJP has not only to be viewed in this backdrop but even more importantly in the light of how and what the RSS, of which the BJP is the political arm, perceives the AAP Punjab victory to dethrone Congress in the state and deny it victories in Uttrakhand and Goa.
An article by RSS ideologue Ratan Sharda that appeared in its mouthpiece ‘Organiser’ immediately after the assembly election results interestingly touches upon both the questions, though impliedly. But the message is loud and clear.
“The Congress’ decimation in the assembly polls is expected to give regional players more bargaining power to challenge the grand old party’s big brother attitude as efforts are on make a united opposition front to take on the BJP in 2024 elections and AAP’s massive Punjab win is set to change the opposition dynamics. With AAP expanding its feet to Punjab, the only regional party to rule the second state after Delhi has given a fillip to party chief Arvind Kejriwal’s candidature as a national leader. Riding high on its landslide victory in Punjab, AAP leaders made an announcement that the party will emerge as a national alternative and replace the Congress,” observed Mr Sharda.
These observations make an interesting reading from the RSS-BJP’s point of view. An AAP victory in Punjab in particular is more advantageous to the saffron party and its strategists than either Congress or the Shiromani Akali Dal winning. There is no doubt, as pointed out by Mr Sharda, that emphatic victory in Punjab has catapulted Mr Kejriwal to a vantage position in terms of achieving the status of a national leader and in turn become the hub of opposition unity. In the event of that happening he would definitely be replacing Congress.
A common denominator that on occasions leads to the thought of BJP and AAP, particularly the latter, complimenting each other, is that both detest the Congress. The BJP does it for ideological reason with Mr Modi further adding to the armoury the ingredient of dynastic politics and his resolve at “Congress-mukt Bharat”. On the other hand the AAP’s (read Kejriwal) tirade against Congress is guided more by snatching the latter’s vote-bank ( whatever is left of it) and project itself as the ageing party’s alternative.
The AAP’s positioning vis-a-vis the Congress is certainly advantageous to the BJP at least till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It will be interesting to see how the Congress and AAP perform in the next set of assembly elections covering two BJP-ruled states Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. An AAP victory in any of these states if not the two will certainly further energise Mr Kejriwal to march towards his national goal and a Congress win in any of these states will further complicate the opposition unity plank to the BJP’s advantage.
How would the BJP strategists view the opposition unity scenario if at all it takes off? Will a Congress-driven or an AAP-webbed unity plank suit the BJP?
Certainly the BJP strategists will have their eyes riveted on how the opposition unity progresses after AAP’s emphatic victory in Punjab and will certainly be wary of the latter’s rising political graph and in turn rising stock of Mr Kejriwal. The only disadvantage for AAP ahead of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat election is the absence of organisational set up in these two states which to a great extent was not the case in Punjab.
Even if the Punjab victory has put Mr Kejriwal on to the driver’s seat on the bandwagon of opposition unity, the ride ahead for him would be anything but easier. Other regional players such as Trinamool Congress and Telengana Rashtriya Samithi supremos and chief minister of their states, Mamta Banerjee and K Chandrasekhar Rao have repeatedly questioned the Congress’s ability to confront the BJP, a belief that has been further strengthened after the party’s decimation in the assembly elections including Punjab. Will this shared view raise their comfort level to work with Mr Kejriwal if he insisted on becoming the pivot of the opposition unity, by relegating to the backdrop their own national ambitions?
Some may say that 2024 will be too early for Mr Kejriwal to nurse his national ambitions. And rightly too as the AAP still has to enter new territories and that has to happen at the cost of the Congress. But he will have a strong reason to stake a claim to the leadership of opposition unity lest the ilk of Ms Banerjee, Mr Rao or DMK chief M K Stalin fill this slot that will be difficult to get vacated.
These complications notwithstanding, AAP’s convincing victory in Punjab that has given it another foothold outside Delhi has certainly put it on an advantageous position. It is the only regional party now which is ruling more than one state which is a bonus towards claiming the national status. An electoral victory in another state will certainly take AAP ahead of any other regional party.
The take away from AAP’s Punjab victory is that its graph in national politics has increased which has raised its stakes in all efforts at opposition unity and that of the Congress has further dwindled. How would the AAP and Congress see each other on the chess board of opposition unity will be interesting to watch?
The BJP despite having negligible presence in Punjab should be happy with the poll outcome. It is to their advantage on two counts, firstly the Congress losing yet another state and secondly AAP victory has the potential to complicate the opposition unity plans unless Mr Kejriwal chooses to go slow and waits for another day for a Modi versus Kejriwal direct contest.
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