Ashok Ogra
While conspiracy theories have always existed in politics, their strategic and liberal use today reflects deeper challenges: political polarization, declining trust in institutions, and the blurring lines between fact and fiction in public discourse. The allure of a conspiracy theory lies not in its truth, but in its ability to explain away inconvenient facts.
The recent assassination attempts on the US presidential candidate Donald Trump have reignited the debate surrounding conspiracy theories. It is too early to link the incidents to any organized conspiracy, but many hardcore Republicans are convinced that the attacks were orchestrated by vested interests, rather than isolated acts carried out by disgruntled individuals.
Following a series of recent railway accidents, claims-especially on social media-suggest that these incidents are part of a larger conspiracy aimed at destabilizing our country. Initial investigations have indicated that many of the accidents were caused by mischief, often involving local youths, rather than any organized plot or external force.
Historically, attributing incidents to conspiracies, hidden enemies, or foreign interference is nothing new. Leaders across political parties have often employed such narratives to divert attention from internal issues or gain an advantage over their political opponents.
The rise of social media has significantly amplified the spread of conspiracy theories. Platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter enable these narratives to reach vast audiences at unprecedented speed. Algorithms on these platforms often create echo chambers, where users are exposed primarily to content that reinforces their pre-existing beliefs. As a result, conspiracy theories become more deeply entrenched, making them resilient to factual counterarguments.
How else can one explain the refusal of Sant Bhindranwale’s ardent followers to accept that he was killed during Operation Blue Star in 1984? For a long time, many of them firmly believed that he had escaped through a tunnel to Lahore.
However, there is room for optimism. A recent experiment using artificial intelligence-specifically a version of ChatGPT-demonstrated that AI can gently challenge deeply held conspiracy beliefs. For instance, the AI was able to question widely held but unfounded claims, such as the idea that Covid-19 was a population control plot or that the 9/11 attacks were orchestrated by the U.S. government. Remarkably, the experiment showed that AI could influence individuals’ beliefs, defying the commonly held view that people cling to conspiracy theories for emotional reasons and are immune to evidence.
This breakthrough offers hope in addressing what has been called the “conspiracy syndrome,” where individuals are consumed by the belief in hidden forces and dark plots. Those who subscribe to conspiracy theories often see themselves as intellectually superior and tend to dismiss opposing viewpoints, making them particularly difficult to persuade through traditional arguments.
However, the use of AI demonstrates that with the right approach-one that is carefully framed, logical, and evidence-based-it is possible to significantly mitigate the spread and impact of conspiracy theories. Historically, such theories have played a critical role in shaping political discourse, particularly during periods of geopolitical tension. In the Soviet Union under Stalin, conspiracy theories were weaponized as a tool for political control. The regime justified the imprisonment, torture, and execution of millions by claiming they were spies, saboteurs, or traitors plotting against the state.
In the United States, conspiracy theories have also significantly influenced political discourse. During the 1950s, the fear of communist infiltration-both real and imagined-gripped the nation. Politicians exploited this fear, accusing opponents of being communist sympathizers to gain political leverage. Many careers were destroyed, and the nation became engulfed in a paranoid frenzy over a perceived communist revolution that never materialized.
The persistence of conspiracy theories in American politics can also be seen in the ongoing skepticism surrounding the assassination of President John Kennedy. Despite the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone, countless alternative theories continue to thrive, reflecting a deep mistrust of official narratives and the belief that unseen forces may have been at play.
In the United Kingdom, the death of Princess Diana in a 1997 car crash has similarly given rise to numerous conspiracy theories. Despite multiple investigations concluding that her death was an accident, many still believe it was an assassination orchestrated by the British royal family to prevent potential scandals and protect the monarchy’s reputation.
India has also witnessed its share of such theories, particularly during the political tenure of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who had become a victim of ‘conspiracy syndrome.’ In the 1970s, she strongly believed that her political opponents were being supported by foreign agents, which she used to justify the imposition of the Emergency in 1975. During this period, civil liberties were suspended, and opposition leaders were imprisoned, all under the pretext of safeguarding the nation from foreign subversion. Gandhi went so far as to label Jayaprakash Narayan’s 1974 call for “Total Revolution” (Sampoorna Kranti), aimed at addressing corruption, unemployment, and authoritarianism, as an “anti-national” movement supported by foreign conspirators. In more recent years, conspiracy theories have continued to shape Indian political discourse. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, accusations of foreign interference have resurfaced, claiming that outside forces, sometimes with the tacit support of internal groups, are determined to undermine India’s development initiatives.
That explains why opposition parties raising concerns about national issues, such as Chinese incursions in Ladakh, are often labeled ‘anti-national.’ Protests against government policies, such as the Agnipath military recruitment scheme, have been dismissed as part of a conspiracy to incite violence, despite legitimate concerns raised by retired military officials about the scheme’s impact on combat effectiveness. It is fair to assume that, in reality, this tactic is used by the government to discredit valid criticism.
However, when opposition leaders criticize or undermine the image of their own country while on foreign soil, it is best avoided. Such actions can tarnish the nation’s reputation internationally and may be perceived as airing internal grievances in an inappropriate forum. This is not to suggest that genuine foreign interference has never occurred. Some of the most notable examples include the 1953 coup orchestrated by the CIA and MI6 to overthrow Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and install the Shah of Iran; the assassination of Patrice Lumumba, the first Prime Minister of Congo, in a plot allegedly orchestrated by Belgium with possible CIA involvement; Israeli agents conducting bombings in Egypt in 1954, attempting to frame the Muslim Brotherhood to destabilize the Nasser regime; and Russia’s ongoing interference in U.S. elections. The list goes on…
The Indian subcontinent since 1947 has been a significant battleground for the covert operations of major intelligence agencies like the CIA (USA), KGB (Soviet Union/Russia), and MI6 (UK). The CIA was heavily involved in countering Soviet influence, especially in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The KGB, on the other hand, sought to strengthen Soviet ties with India’s leadership. MI6 maintained an active presence, leveraging colonial-era networks and focusing on British interests in the region. These agencies influenced everything from political alliances and economic policies to insurgencies and military operations, shaping the India’s geopolitical landscape for decades.
We are well aware that Pakistan has been actively training, funding, and supporting militant groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir for decades. The 2001 Parliament attack and the 2008 Mumbai attacks, both orchestrated by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, serve as stark reminders of this ongoing threat. The brutal attack on the CRPF convoy in Pulwama in 2019 remains fresh in our minds. And, unfortunately, the list goes on.
We are also aware of the role Pakistan’s ISI played in supporting the Khalistan movement during the 1980s by providing training and financial aid to Sikh militants. Elements of the Sikh diaspora, particularly in Canada, the UK, and the U.S., continue to receive encouragement and aid to promote the Khalistan cause, leading to diplomatic tensions over foreign interference in India’s security.
Foreign funding has also played a significant role in influencing Indian discourse and the functioning of few of the NGOs, often creating concerns about national security, sovereignty, and foreign interference in domestic matters. The influence of foreign funding on NGOs in India has been a subject of debate, particularly regarding how these funds shape public opinion, policy advocacy, and activism in critical sectors such as the environment, human rights, and development.
This raises a fundamental question: why do people so easily believe in conspiracy theories? The answer likely lies in the fact that human brains are wired to seek patterns and make sense of the world, even when reality is unclear or multifaceted. Conspiracies often distill complicated events into narratives that are easier to understand, attributing them to a single cause or group. In addition, people tend to seek and believe information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, and conspiracy theories often provide that confirmation.
Regardless, such interference-whether covert or overt-serves as a warning to governments, helping them preempt potential threats. It is crucial that governments remain vigilant in protecting national interests. However, it is equally important to resist the temptation to attribute all criticism or protest to foreign interference or internal sabotage. In conclusion, conspiracy theories have been and continue to be a significant force in shaping political narratives across the globe. Therefore, the challenge lies in promoting evidence-based dialogue and addressing the root causes of these beliefs. The use of AI, as demonstrated by recent experiments, offers a promising path forward. By gently challenging conspiracy theories with logic and reason, AI tools could help restore trust in evidence-based arguments, strengthening the foundations of democracy and fostering a more informed and rational public discourse. It’s time we resist lending our ears to conspiracy theories and instead insist that sound facts guide our discussions and shape our decisions.
(The author works for reputed Apeejay Education, New Delhi)
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