Brij Bhardwaj
There is a debate going on and midnight oil is being burnt in world capitals as they look for clues to find out if the Taliban in control of Afghanistan have changed. It is not an easy task, as conflicting signals are emerging. While official spokesman of the Taliban claims that they will follow Shariat law and allow women to work at the same time, there is a report that a woman pilot in the Afghan Air Force has been stoned to death.
Women with a few exceptions are staying indoors and are scared. Many would like to leave Afghanistan if they could, but it is not easy as there are no commercial flights. Even reaching the airport is not easy as the Taliban have set up check posts on the road to airport and deny passage to all except those holding passports and valid visas to travel. In some places local commanders have allowed women to return to work while in other cities they have been asked to leave.
The Taliban are working overtime to create an impression that they are different, but can they be trusted. They made commitment of ceasefire in Doha but captured cities including Kabul in a military take over. There are also reports that searches are on to catch all who were working in security agencies of Afghan Government and those who helped Americans in fight against Taliban.
At the same time they are talking with former President Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah so that a broad based Government can be installed in Kabul. The Taliban are aware of the fact that the Government in Kabul has fallen and a large part of three lakh strong Afghan army trained and equipped by the Americans has surrendered. There are pockets of resistance. Panjsheer Valley, traditional enemy of Taliban has declared that they would fight them. In South Afghanistan many young men came out in streets to protest against them, forcing the Taliban to open fire killing many. Some army men with their equipment have joined hands with fighters in the North.
Women are also not accepting new rules and are protesting. Protests were seen in Kabul, besides in cities like Kandahar and Jalalabad. A strong section of Afghans who during last twenty years got educated, tasted freedom and enjoyed free movement are reluctant to accept restrictions which the Taliban would like to impose.
The Taliban also are not clear about the future and no clear directions have been issued to ground level workers. There are factions allied with ISI of Pakistan and there are others who are opposed to Pakistan. There are many who are participating in movements against rulers in Russia and China. Two countries who along with Pakistan are keen to establish diplomatic ties with the Taliban.The main attraction is minerals in Afghanistan which will help in building new age batteries to run electric cars.
It should be kept in mind that large parts of Afghanistan have never reconciled to Taliban rule. North region close to Uzbekistan, Shia dominated areas close to Iran and many other pockets. Afghanistan history shows that it has large number of tribes with their independent identity, they can be made to reconcile and agree, but never be cowed down by force. In the absence of reconciliation, a civil war is inevitable.
There is also a worry that large quantity of weapons, planes and helicopters are now with the Taliban which never had any air power before. Can they pose a danger to the world? The opinion is divided as such equipment is difficult to use in absence of spares, as seen in case of Iran, which inherited modern equipment acquired during rule of Shah but could not use it. The software can be corrupted while helicopters need one third of parts to be replaced every year.
The Taliban, however, are a formidable force because of their ability to strike at will and at time of their choice. They wait in the mountains and tire out the enemy as was done with the Russians and Americans.
Final solution for Afghanistan can only be reconciliation. India enjoys a lot of goodwill in Afghanistan, as it made investment in building infrastructure. It has built hospitals, dams, universities and Parliament building. Travelling in Afghanistan I heard Indian film music being played. Locals did not follow the words but danced to its tunes. At Afghan weddings Indian film music is regularly played..
Countries of region India, Russia and Iran have to join hands to find a solution for the Afghan problem. It will be possible only when Pakistan is reconciled to the fact that Afghan people need independence and not use that country to get depth it lacks. In this context important role will be played by China which has also invested in Afghanistan and is keen to exploit its natural resources. This is possible only if a modern regime is installed in Kabul. China has a lot of clout and can bring Pakistan to the negotiation table.
Solution of Afghan problem will not be found in a hurry but all those who are predicting that the Taliban will have smooth ride will also be disappointed. Option is either reconciliation or a divided country. Afghans unite to fight foreign enemy, but in its absence fight each other. Every Afghan wedding I witnessed ended in shooting as age old family feuds flared up under the influence of alcohol and drugs.
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